Reform might be about to wipe out the Tories

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The election results overnight have dealt a significant blow to the Conservatives, matching the apprehensions many had anticipated.

The party is witnessing losses in nearly half of the seats they sought to defend, with projections hinting at a potential loss of up to 500 council seats—a scenario some analysts had ominously forecasted.

In Blackpool South, the Conservative vote plummeted by 32.1 points, marking it as the party’s third-worst performance in a parliamentary by-election. Reform, securing its highest performance yet with 16.9% of the vote, appears to have contributed substantially to this setback.

Furthermore, in the local elections, Conservative support notably dwindled in wards where Reform fielded candidates. The only mitigating factor for Tory headquarters is that Reform contested only one-sixth of the wards with elections on Thursday, sparing the party from even more severe losses. A full slate would have exacerbated the situation further.

Beneath the surface, certain trends in the election outcomes should be particularly alarming for the Conservatives.

Firstly, a detailed analysis of ward-by-ward results by the BBC indicates an overall decline in support for the party compared to last year’s local elections. This decline aligns with the trend observed in opinion polls, suggesting that instead of closing the gap on Labour, the Conservatives have actually regressed over the past twelve months.

Secondly, the decline in Conservative support is most pronounced in the party’s strongholds. Areas where the Conservatives performed well in the 2021 local elections experienced the greatest dip in support this time around.

This trend corresponds with recent MRP polling, which hinted that the Conservatives may secure even fewer seats in the general election than the 165 they attained in 1997.

Lastly, Labour’s advancement has been particularly notable in squeezing the Liberal Democrat vote in wards where the Tories faced a challenge from Labour. If these trends persist, it could spell significant electoral consequences for the Conservative party in the upcoming general election.

Downing Street will be anxiously awaiting further developments, especially in Tees Valley, where polls suggest Ben Houchen may retain the post of Mayor. However, despite potential isolated victories, the overarching message from the local ballot boxes is clear—the Conservative party remains entrenched in a substantial electoral challenge.